Published December 29, 2025
Here you go:
Here you go:
So, at $87,000 currently, I guess there is some wood to chop to get there?
What in the world? I mean seriously?
See, you can put any price on anything that has no intrinsic value and justify your target. Like, “If everyone with a US brokerage account buys $10,000…then you get to $124,000,000.” Or some such thing.
Personally, if I had put out that $3.8M forecast, I would be A) Monumentally embarrassed at my investment thought process and B) Find myself bonusing Rylie out of my pocket to make up for all the “Cancel My Subscription” emails we’d be dealing with. Over here, I’m fretting you could lose $5 on Union Pacific.
OK, so here’s my take on Bitcoin and crypto. Nothing new here, I’ve felt this way forever. As a result, I never made any money in crypto, and I haven’t thereby lost any either. No book here to talk.
Crypto has always struck me as a nothing burger. Like potato chips, empty calories. Nothing there. It sits on a computer chip. So, it’s always a hoot for me when crypto sponsors use this to represent Bitcoin:
I mean, what the hell, why not just buy gold, not some pretend thing?
You see there is no ‘there’ there with crypto. It’s a concept. No one really understands how it comes into being, although I’ve come close to understanding. But if I struggle, what about the average investor? Do they understand what they’re getting?
I think they do, actually. They’re getting a lottery ticket that pays off if people buy Bitcoin (or whatever). It’s a pure supply/demand thing, no other way to value it. It’s a pure Fear/Greed valuation. It’s a solution in search of a problem. Honestly, when you own it, what do you really have?
History is clear: Eras featuring easy money speculation birth easy money speculations. Easy come and go, remember.
It’s always fun when I read articles pretending to analyze it, you know, with support and resistance levels and targets and so forth. Hooey. No one knows because no one knows what the demand will be. The supply is pretty well known, but the demand wild card is quite simply unknowable. So don’t give me a target on Bitcoin. You don’t really know what it will be. It’s just a guess.
I read an article where two “analysts” went to great lengths to show why a $1,000,000 price was essentially inevitable. Only in the fine print did you find out they were in the employ of a cryptocurrency PR firm…
I can tell you when it’s rising, the number of articles on it rises as well, and after it craters/crashes, there is another flurry of articles and then it all kind of goes silent because of the pain and the unwillingness of former bulls to step up and risk the second cream pie in the face.
I’m not even discussing the smaller brothers and sisters. Some of the Trump stuff has cratered 95%, for example. This is also common. A lead item has a large move, and then, cheaper and cheaper products are created to bring in the money. We saw that in gold and silver. Huge move in gold, and then silver had its large move.
But I do believe in stablecoins. A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency backed by a real currency. Thus, a US Dollar stablecoin or a Eurodollar stablecoin or a Yuan Stablecoin. But it is backed by a real currency and so can be converted, and you know exactly what it is worth. Stablecoins do solve for what I call the “friction” problem in financial transactions. You don’t need intermediaries in the middle, taking your stuff and converting it to another realm and charging some fee to do so. So, it solves a real issue.
But there are no real fans of stablecoins. You know why? You’re ahead of me here…there’s no real money in waving the flag. No real spread, no fees, no this nor that. And the underlying supporting it is actually pretty boring, so no speculative juices flow. I’m sure people will figure out how to make a spread on it, but it will pale in comparison with how Bitcoin and crypto operates.
Stablecoin also presents something the central banks can embrace. They won’t lose control over their currencies with a currency backed stablecoin. They could by making crypto currencies legal tender.
So, my forecast for Bitcoin and crypto is simple: It will move where it will because demand will ramp or disappear. It is pretty much unanalyzable (if that’s a word). People go for it to catch the comet, no other reason that I can see. You could buy 4% or so as an uncorrelated asset class, sure. Just know that it can be uncorrelated to profits in addition to uncorrelated to stocks or whatever.
Buyer and seller beware. In my quiet moments, I wonder if I need that kind of excitement. Asked and answered.
