Published December 29, 2025
Rapid7
Symbol RPD $15.40
Here is something that could experience a move within a month or so…timely. I guess they call things like this ‘quick hits.’ Maybe help offset BP in my account which could take some time to work out?
There is a tendency with this kind of idea to load the boat, but I wouldn’t do so. I would take a position and if so, be willing to lose 10% on it if events don’t come to pass in a positive way.
Here’s the story:
Rapid7 is a cybersecurity company that provides security analytics and automation solutions to help organizations manage cyber risk.
Jana Partners is active here. Note the January date below which is important. I’m presenting below the investment thesis.
You could have paid $62 for it in early 2024, $144 in 2021.
JANA Partners has been pushing for a sale of the company and exploring other options to boost the stock price. The activist campaign has been ongoing since mid-2024.
Key Developments:
- JANA increased its stake to a 13% economic voting interest in September 2024
- JANA is working with Cannae Holdings (led by billionaire Bill Foley) with the proposal for Cannae to team up with a private equity firm to purchase Rapid7
- Reuters reported in October that Rapid7 was exploring options with investment bankers after attracting acquisition interest from buyout firms including Advent, Bain Capital, and EQT
Settlement Reached:
In March 2025, Rapid7 reached a settlement with JANA, adding three board members: former Forescout CEO Wael Mohamed, former Imperva CFO Michael Burns, and JANA Director Kevin Galligan. The board expanded from 8 to 11 members, and JANA agreed to keep its ownership stake below 15% until January 2026.
JANA’s Criticisms:
JANA cited issues with operational execution, forecasting, investor communication, corporate governance, board composition, and worker retention as reasons the stock is undervalued.
The stock remains deeply depressed, down 80% from its November 2021 all-time high of $138.40, making it a continued focus for potential M&A activity. JANA has a strong track record with similar campaigns at New Relic and Zendesk, both of which were taken private.
So, it is simple. The standstill expires next month. If JANA chooses to increase its stake it would signal investors that another campaign to realize value might be next. If not, then it is at best/worst dead money. If they announce they are reducing their stake, then the downside becomes operative.
I’ve taken a 3% position in my trading account…enough to move the overall needle a bit if this works out, not so much to damage the P&L if it doesn’t.
Here is the chart, I don’t think we’re overpaying? But careful. I’m sure when it was at $100 on its way down from $144, they thought the same falling knife thought.
