May 8, 2026
As a member of NATO, the United States is bound to come to the defense of any NATO country attacked by a bad actor. We’d all agree Russia comes to mind. If we are going to do so, then we have to be willing to send our men and women in to die for Albania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
I don’t know about you, but I am not willing to support that.
As we all know, decades ago, Europe embarked on what I would call a Socialist Lite/Heavy agenda. Ample public benefits, in some cases, cradle to grave. This was accompanied by high income tax rates to pay for it and a reduction in defense spending to help pay for it. And as in all Socialist endeavors, it appears they are running out of other people’s money. In this case, your and my tax dollars. According to Rand, we have 80,000 to 100,000 troops stationed in Europe. Annual cost is estimated around $30B to $40B. This is not a huge number in an $895 billion defense budget, but it is a number, nonetheless.
Of course, the European shift to a Socialist flavor was all accompanied by smarmy lecturing to us about how bad things were/are in the United States. For example, our people work hard. That’s terrible, a good number of them believe.
Now I believe we will be pulling out. Trump is in a spat with Germany and has yanked 5,000 troops. Whether or not the spat is handled I think the trends are unmistakable. Because in a world where the Federal Deficit has now hit 100% of GDP (and continues to grow without respite), spending is going to come under a new and bright examination in the years ahead. And it seems to me that it is an easy $30B to $40B to get (compared to cutting Social Security for example).
People will argue that we need to stay in NATO, that global national security concerns demand that. And I have some sympathy for that. We provide a number of logistical and technical support programs (think…satellite intelligence) that help European military establishments.
But the idea we need to be in Europe to defend them against the Russians is nonsense and nonsense on two levels. First, let’s look at the tape:
Are you going to argue that two dozen countries, with ten times the economic output and four times the population of Russia need us to help? Keeping in mind that Russia can’t even handle Ukraine which has one-quarter the population. And, that the Russian economy is teetering toward collapse as oil revenue continues to decline.
I am reminded about the piece I wrote where we attended the Paris Airshow and I remarked to Michael there was enough European defense goods there to fight a war, just from the airshow…
Now, it is my view that Trump committed an egregious sin for a leader…an unforced rookie error. The whole Greenland episode was a waste of time, but more, a waste of goodwill. I am clueless about the reasons for it. They would never give it up, but perhaps he had hopes of that. Nonetheless, reports indicated the Europeans are rethinking the reliability of the US as allies. Perhaps they should.
In a post WW 2 world, NATO was necessary. Europe was at its knees and the Russians at their military peak…Stalin and eleven million people under arms. Bringing US troops home in 1945 was actually debated…would the Russians over run Europe? Patton famously argued for the US to go after Russian in 1945. He felt the war would be inevitable and we had the people there and air superiority and the atomic bomb. He was knocked back, but for decades, NATO had its purpose. But times and circumstances change.
Now the only thing the Europeans lack, it seems to me, is the will to defend themselves. And I think decades of sitting in cafes, smoking cigarettes and sighing and drinking small cups of coffee, dreaming of retirement, induces a certain mind pattern. Picking up a rifle and slogging to the front, not being one of them.
Moreover, I don’t know why we should now feel the obligation. Just consider the response in the Iran conflict. They ran for cover. Spain refused any help at all. The Brits and the Italians waffled. Ironically, it is they and not us who need that crude oil. But it is the traditional military nightmare…you rally your people to take the hill, and they are enthusiastic, and then you run up the hill and look back and you’re alone.
It’s past time for the Europeans to step up. We will be busy enough with the Pacific theatre. We can’t defend the entire globe because new and emerging fiscal realities are going to create new pressures. And spending that we thought was necessary will be rethought. The military budget will come under new scrutiny. We will simply not be able to afford all we are doing, and the Nice to Have but Not Necessaries will illuminate under a microscope.
Put another way…are we willing to die for people who aren’t willing to die for themselves? Nice to have but not necessary? Maybe not nice to have at all?
Sunday, we are leaving for Amsterdam. Three nights there with friends and then a week’s cruise down the Rhine, ending in Basel. I’m really looking forward to it. I haven’t been in Germany since 1966 and there is much I love about the country.
I’m sure there will be a lot of interesting interactions with the 150 international passengers on board. When I return, I’ll report on the good ones.
Thoughts, questions, or reflections? I’d love to hear them. You can reach me anytime at anthony@workingprofit.com
