September 12, 2015
New estimates from the American Institute for Economic Research based on data from the United Nations and the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) indicate within 25 years, most all of the world’s developed nations will have passed a peak population level and will be in decline.
Translation of TFR: You need a total fertility rate of 2.1 to hold a population steady. It’s a replacement rate for the two parents considering premature deaths and so forth (the 0.1 in the 2.1 factor). So, if your number is less than 2, you’re gonna shrink:
| Country | Total Fertility Rate | Projected Peak Population Year |
| Australia | 1.66 (2023) | 2035 |
| Austria | 1.45 (2022) | 2040 |
| Belgium | 1.60 (2022) | 2038 |
| Canada | 1.40 (2022) | 2045 |
| Chile | 1.48 (2022) | 2040 |
| Czech Republic | 1.70 (2021) | 2033 |
| Denmark | 1.55 (2022) | 2037 |
| Finland | 1.35 (2021) | 2035 |
| France | 1.84 (2021) | 2050 |
| Germany | 1.53 (2021) | 2035 |
| Greece | 1.43 (2021) | 2030 |
| Hungary | 1.55 (2021) | 2035 |
| Ireland | 1.78 (2021) | 2045 |
| Israel | 3.00 (2021) | No peak this century |
| Italy | 1.25 (2021) | 2030 |
| Japan | 1.30 (2021) | 2008 (already peaked) |
| Korea | 0.70 (2023) | 2025 (peaking) |
| Mexico | 1.73 (2021) | 2050 |
| Netherlands | 1.60 (2021) | 2040 |
| New Zealand | 1.65 (2022) | 2045 |
| Norway | 1.50 (2021) | 2040 |
| Poland | 1.39 (2021) | 2032 |
| Portugal | 1.40 (2024) | 2028 |
| Spain | 1.19 (2021) | 2028 |
| Sweden | 1.60 (2021) | 2045 |
| Turkey | 2.05 (2021) | 2050 |
| United Kingdom | 1.53 (2021) | 2040 |
| United States | 1.62 (2023) | 2045 |
Note: US population has held up because of immigration. Rarely mentioned in the illegal immigration fight is that the United States admits roughly 1.2 million legal immigrants per year through the immigration system.
Mostly, this crisis is a result of misguided population policies that began to grip the thinking of “experts” and drove governments to incentivize their peoples to reduce the number of children. The most telling example would be China, where the one child policy resulted in China passing its peak population rate in 2022.
India is expected to pass peak rate in 2060 and so will be the most populous country in the world. But China has a worrisome (at least for China) trend underway. In recent years, roughly five workers supported each elderly person. But by 2050, 39% of the total population will have passed retirement age. This leaves an unsustainable 2 ½ workers to support each elderly person. You probably know that in China, the safety net is fairly thin and is mostly taken up by children and other family members.
Clear implications for China’s military policies…how do you field a standing army if they’re needed to take care of their parents?
But consider a married working couple in China. They may have as many as four parents to support, not to mention their own needs and their children’s needs.
In 1968 Paul Ehrlich made a bombshell prediction in his book Population Bomb when he predicted by the 1970’s the world would enter a prolonged period of famine that would kill hundreds of millions of people. He was a Professor of Population Studies at Stanford. Stanford maybe should have saved the money. Here:
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over.” The famous first line of his book
“By 1985 enough millions will have died to reduce the earth’s population to some acceptable level, like 1.5 billion people.” I note that the actual number in 1985 was nearly 5 billion people.
“In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.”
And this one below that I confess escapes every single IQ point in my brain and remains puzzling to me. I mean I think he views Working Profit as culture, but my physical remains will remain outside the culture boundary.
“Culture can be loosely defined as the body of non-genetic information which people pass from generation to generation.”
I ask a reasonable question: Do I even have the time to think about that?
In 1985 he said that if he were a betting man, he would bet that by 2000, the United Kingdom wouldn’t exist.
How and why a great deal of the intelligentsia and political class rallied behind the blindingly incorrect would be the subject of another piece…how crowds become enamored with ideas whether or not the facts support that. In 2004, he issued a kind of mea culpa indicating that yes, population was actually in decline, but then he said the problem is really over consumption by wealthy nations.
So, small ‘m’ and small ‘c.’ Kind of a begrudging mea culpa.
At any rate, all this book way back when created a stir and energized what would become the global population control culture. He completely missed the Green Revolution in Agriculture. As I’m fond of saying, it’s what you don’t know you don’t know that gets you in the keister.
And basically, this said that growth was a threat to prosperity.
A small sampling of the effects…
The UN and the World Bank included population control measures in their “if you want the money here’s what you must do” documents. The aforementioned China One-Child Policy, implemented in 1979 included various population control measures.
And it is important to remember that you can’t just throw money into the problem or create new laws. If you want to create one 18-year worker to help move an economy, it will take exactly 18 years to create that person and you can’t accelerate the process. This ain’t goin’ away.
Not enough space here to get into the environmental impacts, how fewer people can benefit the planet. So, this is not simply a one-way street. And not enough space to get into the granular as to why young people are foregoing families…two family paychecks make it tough, the cost being of paramount consideration. And there is no time here to get into potential solutions.
The purpose here is to sensitize you to a problem that will be with all of us for the rest of our lives. We’ve never faced a situation where the future holds for fewer people and so, just about everything has to be reconsidered. Example: As developed nations peak, developing nations are growing. TFI rates:
Pakistan 3.3
Nigeria 5.2
Philippines 2.7
Iraq 3.4
So, an inevitable population shift, even after higher death rates in those countries. Where is the highest growth rate among Catholics? Africa…has been growing at 2-3 times the global Catholic rate of 1.1%. There will absolutely be a Pope from the African continent, it is just a question of when.
Consider robots and AI. Robots can do the work, increasingly, but you know, they don’t eat meals at restaurants, they don’t buy clothes at Macy’s, and they don’t pay stupid money for football tickets. So, who do companies sell to?
This is a good subject to keep your consciousness as you see various events and policies unfold. Population statistics generally get a yawn, but boy they shouldn’t any longer.
Thoughts, questions, or reflections? I’d love to hear them. You can reach me anytime at anthony@workingprofit.com
