The era in which we live in regard to Mr. Trump (amped up emotional zing) pauses me to offer this. I am not a Trumpian, I am not an anti-Trumpian. I am not MAGA nor anti-MAGA. I didn’t vote for him (I vote Libertarian) nor did I vote for Kamala Harris (ditto). What I am is a speculative trader of stocks and options and that animates my views here. In which I work very hard to not fall to praise/condemnation and most especially, partisan opinion. Gets in the way of good trading processes.
To be clear. OK…
People are regularly outraged/angered by Donald Trump. And with good reason. Even if you love him, it’s probable that some of the things he has said you really wish he had taken a pass on. He has had his share of cringe moments. But the ballot box appeared willing to overlook that. One thing people should remember is that when he was elected, people knew all about him. All the good and the bad. And they voted. That is, its not as though Americans didn’t know what they were getting or his attributes were a post-election shock.
And if you hate him, you no doubt are in a fairly constant flux as to why and how he can exaggerate the truth, say things that are simply not true and do so with what appears to be a complete lack of remorse or conscience.
But there is a code to understanding Trump. If you can set aside bias and emotion, you can get the code. And once you get the code, you can better deal with his commentary. Because as often as not, you’re being manipulated, you’re being played…the comment is actually there for a purpose, and it is not simply shoot from the hip ignorance.
One of the things I’ve learned is that people will very often tell you exactly what they are going to do if they ever get the reins of power. It’s just that people don’t take the time to go back and learn it. My best example is Ben Bernanke. Years before he became Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he wrote a book called Inflation Targeting and he told you exactly what he was going to do. Book blurb:
“How should governments and central banks use monetary policy to create a healthy economy? Traditionally, policymakers have used such strategies as controlling the growth of the money supply or pegging the exchange rate to a stable currency. In recent years a promising new approach has emerged: publicly announcing and pursuing specific targets for the rate of inflation.
And then, he did! Meanwhile, I was reading a lot of ‘expert’ opinion trying to parse Bernanke’s words and where he was heading and whether or not he could be believed…Honestly, he told us what he was going to do.
Thus, Trump.
Trump wrote The Art of the Deal in 1977. It currently ranks #1 on Amazon in the Entrepreneur category, but it should rank #1 in the Political category because it is the guide to understanding Trump and how he operates. Of course, people who dislike/hate him no doubt find it difficult to buy and read his book and that’s understandable, and people who like/love him probably don’t feel it’s necessary. So as a public service, here are several quotations from the book with my commentary on how they relate to current events and the current Trump…
OK, the first thing you need to know:
“Good publicity is preferable to bad, but from a bottom-line perspective, bad publicity is sometimes better than no publicity at all. Controversy, in short, sells.”
So, when he says something outrageous, he is often doing so simply to create a media or social media explosion. He’s playing with everyone, doesn’t really always believe what he’s saying. People get upset at his willingness to be so open about it. But I think most politicians are playing people, it’s just that he’s the most obvious example of that. Most all of the others really hide it from us.
More:
“The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people’s fantasies. People may not always think big themselves. but they can get very excited by those who do. That is why a little hyperbole never hurts. (underline added by me) People want to believe that something is the biggest, the greatest and the most spectacular.”
When he plays loose with facts, he views it as merely ‘a little hyperbole.’ So people conclude he’s an idiot without a command of the facts. Think about this: If he didn’t have command of the facts, why are his comments always a stretch of them? He knows the facts, it is not an accident that he regularly exceeds them. Because he knows the facts, he just chooses to exaggerate them.
Recently, he commented that gasoline was $1.98 in several places around the country. That was a complete fabrication. But people went nuts about it on social media…how can he lie, etc. etc. etc.
Again: “…bad publicity is sometimes better than no publicity at all. Controversy, in short, sells.”
Because…
“The point is that if you are a little different, or a little outrageous, or if you do things that are bold or controversial, the press is going to write about you.”
Trump is all about staying in the public eye, getting eyeball counts and clicks. He’s selling all the time and so, outrage is, for him, a tool.
“One thing I’ve learned about the press is that they’re always hungry for a good story, and the more sensational the better. It’s in the nature of the job, and I understand that.”
He’s playing them and they seem to be willing to be played because in part, they need good copy, fill those columns and hours…
You wonder who his political mentor(s) is/are? Jimmy Carter!
“He told me was seeking contributions to the Jimmy Carter Library. I asked how much he had in mind. And he said, ” Donald, I would be very appreciative if you contributed five million dollars.” I was dumbfounded. I didn’t even answer him. But that experience also taught me something. Until then, I’d never understood how Jimmy Carter became president. The answer is that as poorly qualified he was for the job, Jimmy Carter had the nerve, the guts, the balls, to ask for something extraordinary. That ability above all helped him get elected president.” My underline added.
That’s how he really felt about Carter, which of course is a complete opposite of his generally derogatory remarks about Carter which of course got Trump ink and bytes and air time of outrage.
Universities, are you listening:
“Perhaps because my father never got a college degree himself, he continued to view people who had one with a respect that bordered on awe. In most cases they didn’t deserve it. My father could run circles around most academics and he would have done very well in college, if he’d been able to go.”
I have read Fred Trump’s bio page on Wikipedia, I think its worth the read to understand Donald Trump. You will find echoes, repeats, imitations and all of that which helps understand the President.
“MY STYLE of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after.”
So, he keeps harping on the Canadians but I wonder if he’s trying to set them up to help pay for Golden Dome? Or a better trade deal? Probably both! Does he honestly believe he can annex Canada? He’s after Greenland, does he honestly believe he can pry Greenland loose from the Dutch (good luck), or is he leveraging for more American defense presence (which he’ll ask them to help pay for) in the Arctic?
I’m moved to remark that all the Greenland commentary has stopped, and to me, not co-incidental to the Europeans increasing their defense budgets.
How does he strive to win?
“Leverage: don’t make deals without it. Enhance”
You recall when he dropped the tariff bomb on China, he then went home and played golf for the weekend. People were outraged. He went to the golf course! He didn’t care about the effect! But you know what, he didn’t play golf because he didn’t care. He played golf for Xi Jinping:
“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seen desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have. Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can’t do without.”
Imagine the CCP gathers a hasty, emergency meeting of the inner circle:
“Report! Where is Trump today? Locked up with his cabinet?”
“Mr. Xi, he is playing golf with his friends and has just birdied #5.”
“He doesn’t seem worried?”
“Well, he’s got three birdies so far so I don’t think so?”
Here’s some trivia…Where did Xi Jinping’s daughter go to school?
Harvard.
So much more, you can search for “The Art of the Deal quotes” and there are a lot of them listed. I used Goodreads for mine.
Trump Quotes by Donald J. Trump | Goodreads
Once you better educate yourself about him, it is my guess it won’t change your opinion of him. But you will better understand him and so, can take much of what he says and does with a more accurate appraisal of what it means. He won’t be able to play you, at least not as much. He’s always working a deal and in that, manipulation is always front and center. It’s not that he doesn’t believe in what he’s trying to do it’s just that his way of going about it is generally misunderstood.
He gets people to focus on Donald Trump but what you and I really need to do is focus on the issue at hand, independent of our feelings (good or bad) about him. He’s selling and he wants us to buy and we need the same skeptical attitude we take whenever someone is trying to sell us something. And sometimes we buy and sometimes we don’t buy but we do owe it to ourselves to make the informed decision.
I have spent the better part of 50 years relentlessly trying to drive emotion and bias out of my investment thought process, even as I have my biases. That is, I check my bias at the door to my office. It works better that way.
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